NEW DELHI: After a delayed and weak start in an El Nino year, the monsoon has registered a sharp recovery with the countrywide rainfall deficit coming down to 5% by Thursday from a steep 30% barely 12 days ago.Importantly, the wet spell over the past dozen days since July 24 has covered most regions of the country, including the central and southern parts where the monsoon deficit was worryingly high.

And, contrary to fears that the monsoon may go into a break around the first week of July, the wet spell is likely to continue over the next couple of weeks or so, as per India Meteorological Department officials.The monsoon still has a lot to make up for though.

As on Thursday, 16 out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions in the country had received deficient rainfall, that is, 20% or more below normal, since the start of the monsoon season on June 1.

These include Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra (except the coastal belt), Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and the plains of Bengal.However, the deficits have fallen in all these subdivisions over the past two weeks, and many are likely to get more rain in the coming days.

"From current indications, rainfall in July is likely to be in the higher end of the normal range (94% to 106%).

We expect active monsoon conditions to continue for the next two weeks," said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.

Mohapatra said the main rainfall activity was currently over central India, which was likely to shift to the Indo-Gangetic plains around July 8.02:12Rain lashes Delhi, temp drops to 26 degrees“From current indications, rainfall in July is likely to be in the higher end of the normal range (94% to 106%).

We expect active monsoon conditions to continue for the next two weeks,” said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.

Mohapatra said the main rainfall activity was currently over central India, which was likely to shift to the Indo-Gangetic plains around July 8.

“Around July 12, the monsoon trough is expected to move southward again, bringing another spell of wet weather to central India.

Thereafter, a low-pressure system may form around July 16.

If that happens, central India may get another spell of rainfall,” he added.A good monsoon performance in July is crucial for agriculture since this is the month when the maximum sowing of the kharif crop takes place.

This year, July rainfall has assumed further importance in view of El Nino conditions, which could impact the second half of the monsoon season (August-September).

“Generally, El Nino conditions lead to poor monsoon rains in the latter half of the season.

However, it remains to be seen whether that is going to be the case this year since El Nino conditions in the Pacific are yet to affect the atmosphere.

An El Nino starts to impact weather around the world only after changes in wind currents occur in response to the warming of the ocean,” Mohapatra said.02:50Heavy rainfall lashes Gurugram, leads to waterlogging in several parts of city